Indian stocks close week in green; Focus now on US monetary policy next week

New Delhi [India], March 17 (ANI): Benchmark stock indices in India settled in the green on Friday, tracking positive cues from overseas markets, which improved after the recent slump following the collapse of US-based Silicon Valley Bank-led crisis. The Sensex and Nifty closed 0.6-0.7 per cent higher on Friday. Banking and financial indices, which were in the red for a couple of sessions after the SVB-led banking system crisis in the US, however, settled higher today.

“Following the sharp rebound in the global markets, the domestic indices took a breather in hopes of relief from the global banking turmoil. Global equities reversed their selling streak on reports of a rescue package for the beleaguered First Republic Bank…which would soothe concerns over the global financial stability,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services. The First Republic Bank, facing a crisis of confidence from investors and customers, is set to receive a USD 30-billion lifeline from a group of America’s largest banks.

US Treasury Department said it was a show of support by a group of large banks and is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system.
Prominent global lender in the world of technology startups, the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed last Friday, forcing the US federal government to step in. Regulators shut down the tech lender and put it under the control of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The FDIC is acting as a receiver, which typically means it will liquidate the bank’s assets to pay back its customers, including depositors and creditors.

“What we are seeing is a relief rally backed by strong positive global cues as there are expectations that the US Fed may not take aggressive rate hike steps to tame inflation,” said Amol Athawale, Technical Analyst (DVP), Kotak Securities.
“Some of the concerns over the falling financial health of the US banking industry have also subsided, which further boosted the market sentiment. Falling crude oil prices and recovery in the metal space on hopes of revival in the Chinese economy is also providing some support to the struggling markets.”

For fresh cues, market participants will keenly watch out for next week’s US Federal Reserve monetary policy outcome and foward-looking guidance. The next US monetary policy meeting is scheduled for March 21-22. Consumer inflation in the US moderated in February to 6.0 per cent from 6.4 per cent the previous month, but still the numbers are way above the 2 per cent target. It was at 6.5 per cent in December, and 7.1 per cent the month before.

The US central bank’s policy rate is now in a target range of 4.50-4.75 per cent, the highest level in 15 years, and notably, it was near zero in the early part of 2022. Raising interest rates typically help in cooling demand in the economy and thus help in managing inflation. Despite inflation moderating in recent months, the process of getting it back down to two per cent is still a long way away and the path is likely to be bumpy, said US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier this month.